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NOVEMBER 4,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 A.M. ET:

THE RUSSIAN AIRLINER – From CNN:  As authorities investigate the crash of a Russian airliner in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, the airport where Metrojet Flight 9268 originated is facing new scrutiny.  U.S. intelligence assessments suggest someone planted a bomb on the plane before takeoff, multiple U.S. officials said Wednesday, and that someone inside Sharm el-Sheikh airport could have helped.  News reports say the U.S, came to this conclusion from monitoring ISIS communications.  I wish they wouldn't be that detailed.  Communications intelligence is one of the most sensitive types of information gathering, and the constant talk about it today could give ISIS a road map for sealing a leak.  If the theory is correct – and only scientific analysis of the wreckage can confirm that – it would mark a major escalation in the terror war.

TALK ABOUT SLANTED JOURNALISM – This was actually presented as a significant story at The Politico under the exciting headline, "Woman nods off during Jeb speech":   One woman seemed rather low on energy during a town hall event for Republican candidate Jeb Bush on Thursday, struggling to keep her eyes open and yawning during part of Bush's event.  The Bush campaign identified the woman only as Tara, a working mom who woke up at 4 a.m. for a 12-hour shift to see the former governor of Florida speak.  Why, let's make sure Tara gets a book deal in which she can explain her history of yawning.  I mean, this story is below trivial, but any attempt to embarrass a GOP candidate is considered appropriate these days.  The Politico has damaged its initial reputation for good political reporting and has become a pretty reliably liberal website.

OH, PLEASE! – Some stories are just too hard to believe.  From The Hill:   Donald Trump’s highly anticipated hosting gig on this week’s "Saturday Night Live" is already generating controversy, three full days before showtime.  NBC on Wednesday unveiled eight promos for the upcoming show, but pulled the video from YouTube just minutes after posting, with no explanation.  A network spokesman later told NBC News Correspondent Peter Alexander that it “accidentally” published the wrong YouTube link, which contained three "SNL" promos “not for air,” including one in which Trump calls rival Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson a “real loser.”  In another spot, cast member Cecily Strong reveals that “due to FCC regulations," Trump can only appear in each promo for less than four seconds.  I really doubt that was an accident.  Those are the promos I've seen all over today.  I'm guessing it was an intentional accident designed for publicity.  The whole political world will be watching Trump on SNL.

November 4, 2015       Permalink

ELECTION – AT 8:55 A.M. ET:   There were some local elections around the country yesterday, and one result in particular is drawing attention.  From Fox: 

Republican Matt Bevin, a businessman and Tea Party favorite, beat Democrat Jack Conway on Tuesday to win the race for Kentucky governor -- becoming only the second GOP governor in the state in four decades.

The off-year election, one of many state and local contests held Tuesday ‎across the country, was seen by some as a test for outsider candidates at a time when several such candidates are seeking the GOP presidential nomination. Bevin, who has run as an outsider ever since he unsuccessfully challenged Sen. Mitch McConnell last year, was declared the winner over state Attorney General Conway in the gubernatorial race shortly after polls closed Tuesday evening.

Independent Drew Curtis was a distant third in Tuesday's election.

COMMENT:  This is considered a major upset, as the Dem was leading throughout the race.  Is it a sign of a conservative trend?  Who knows? 

And Ohio rejected a proposal to permit recreational use of marijuana. 

I think our side has a great chance in next year's huge election...with the right candidate and the right message.  But Republicans work hard, and creatively, to lose elections, so we must watch every step carefully. 

November 4, 2015       Permalink

SUCH WARMTH, I'M TOUCHED – AT 8:22 A.M. ET:  We certainly are getting a windfall out of that Iran nuclear deal.  What a brilliant negotiator is John Kerry!  From The New York Times: 

TEHRAN — Anyone who hoped that Iran’s nuclear agreement with the United States and other powers portended a new era of openness with the West has been jolted with a series of increasingly rude awakenings over the past few weeks.

On Tuesday, the eve of the 36th anniversary of the student takeover of the American Embassy in Tehran, state television announced the arrest of a Lebanese-American missing for weeks — after he had been invited here by the government. He has been accused of spying.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, said the “Death to America” slogan is eternal. New anti-American billboards in Tehran include a mockery of the Iwo Jima flag-raising photograph that symbolized Marine sacrifice in World War II. And an Iranian knockoff version of K.F.C., the chicken chain widely associated with the United States, was summarily closed after two days.

“It feels like a witch hunt,” said one Iranian-American businessman in Tehran, who dared not speak for attribution over fear for his safety. “It’s pretty scary.”

And...

The backlash comes as Iran is preparing for parliamentary elections in February that constitute a litmus test of Mr. Rouhani’s policies. It seems that hard-liners, using the intelligence unit of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, have started rounding up journalists, activists and cultural figures, as a warning that the post nuclear-deal period cannot lead to further relaxation or political demands.

COMMENT:  Do you really trust these people to honor the terms of the nuclear deal, or to abstain from terror?  If you do, the Democratic Party probably has a high-ranking job for you. 

The arrest of Americans in Iran is of no interest to the Obama White House.  Doesn't rank high in affecting the president's legacy. 

Ronnie, where are you now that we need you again?

November 4, 2015       Permalink

GIVE THIS WOMAN SOME RESPECT – AT 8:11 A.M. ET:  Given his support of the "Black lives matter" movement, you'd think the president could show some regard for the mother of a police officer killed by an illegal immigrant.  You'd think wrong.  From The Blaze: 

After her police officer son was killed by a drunk-driving illegal immigrant, Mary Anne Mendoza says she has been “pleading” for a meeting with the White House to discuss the politically charged issue of illegal alien criminals.

She said Sunday the White Has responded to her requests with silence.

Mesa, Arizona, police officer Brandon Mendoza was killed in a 2014 head-on collision with a man who was found to be driving intoxicated with a BAC of 0.238 percent and living in the country illegally for decades.

He also had a previous criminal record.

Mary Anne Mendoza has since written three letters to President Barack Obama, but has not received any response. She said it’s “disheartening” to see some of the people who actually receive White House invites.

She's quite right.  Some pretty shady characters, like "the Reverend" Al Sharpton, have frequented this White House.

“We had been pleading with them to meet with us, to see our faces, to feel our pain and to hear our stories,” she told “Fox & Friends,” adding that it may help them “understand this problem a little better and do something about it for Americans.”

COMMENT:   This administration doesn't see illegal immigrants as a problem.  They're part of a potentially useful voting bloc.  The more, the better.  And the flood of refugees from the Mideast are also seen as potentially useful to the Democratic left.

I hope this mother gets some justice, but I doubt that she will.

November 4, 2015       Permalink

ENJOY YOUR VACATION – AT 8:02 A.M. ET:  Another undercover study of security at U.S. airports has turned up troubling problems.  From Fox: 

A federal watchdog told Congress on Tuesday that a recent covert audit of U.S. airports found layers of security were “simply missing,” in the latest undercover investigation to expose gaps in Transportation Security Administration procedures.

The findings were revealed by Department of Homeland Security Inspector General John Roth during a House hearing on TSA problems where new Administrator Peter Neffenger also testified on what he's doing to fix them.

Roth said the tests by federal auditors found "troubling" problems related to technology, procedures and human error at security checkpoints. He said the findings were “consistent across every airport.”

However, he also said new TSA leadership promptly began addressing some of the issues and he is optimistic about airport security being improved.

“I am hopeful that the days of TSA sweeping its problems under the rug and simply ignoring the findings and recommendations … are coming to an end,” he told the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.

COMMENT:  That's a pretty frightening accusation about past practices.  The attacks leading to the Department of Homeland Security occurred 14 years ago. 

Why are other countries, particularly Israel, so much better at airport security?  I suspect it's because they take it more seriously.  We take it seriously only after a major incident.  Also, I suspect some other countries are more selective in their choice of personnel.

Every one of these discouraging reports gives hope to our opponents, hope that if they try something big, they'll get through.

November 4,  2015     Permalink

NOVEMBER 3,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – at 6:05 P.M. ET:

BUT DID THEY HAVE GOOD RESTAURANTS? – From USA Today:   An astrophysicist says he may have found evidence of alternate or parallel universes by looking back in time to just after the Big Bang more than 13 billion years ago.  While mapping the so-called "cosmic microwave background," which is the light left over from the early universe, scientist Ranga-Ram Chary found what he called a mysterious glow, the International Business Times reported.  Chary, a researcher at the European Space Agency’s Planck Space Telescope data center at CalTech, said the glow could be due to matter from a neighboring universe "leaking" into ours, according to New Scientist magazine.  Watch.  Obama will say they all disappeared because of global warming.

OUR AMERICAN FUTURE – From USA Today:   For those people who date back to pre-handheld-device days and who found it hard enough to concentrate on homework even without digital distractions, the sight of multitasking teens is mind-boggling.  It’s also more prevalent than you might think.  A new report by Common Sense Media, a San Francisco-based non-profit that tracks children and their technology use, finds that teens age 13 to 18 spend almost nine hours a day – that’s longer than they usually sleep – on "entertainment media," which includes things like checking out social media, music, gaming or online videos.  Remember when we used to worry about teens spending too much time watching conventional TV?  Ah, those were the good old intellectual days.

AIR ACTION OVER SYRIA? – From the Daily Beast:   The Pentagon is sending F-15Cs—supposedly to fight the ISIS war. But the jets only have air-to-air weapons, and ISIS has no planes. Which means the real adversary is Russia.  The U.S. Air Force is deploying to Turkey up to a dozen jet fighters specializing in air-to-air combat—apparently to help protect other U.S. and allied jets from Russia’s own warplanes flying over Syria.  Officially, the deployment of F-15C Eagle twin-engine fighters to Incirlik, Turkey—which the Pentagon announced late last week—is meant to “ensure the safety” of America’s NATO allies, Laura Seal, a Defense Department spokesperson, told The Daily Beast.  That could mean that the single-seat F-15s and the eight air-to-air missiles they routinely carry will help the Turkish air force patrol Turkey’s border with Syria, intercepting Syrian planes and helicopters that periodically stray into Turkish territory.  But more likely, the F-15s will be escorting attack planes and bombers as they strike ISIS militants in close proximity to Syrian regime forces and the Russian warplanes that, since early October, have bombed ISIS and U.S.-backed rebels fighting the Syrian troops.  Seal declined to discuss the deployment in detail, but hinted at its true purpose. “I didn’t say it wasn’t about Russia,” she said.  This is getting awfully hot, and risky.  Does Obama have a policy?  I doubt it.  But one mistake and we can find ourselves in combat with Russian pilots.  That could really ruin the next G8 meeting.

November 3, 2015       Permalink

TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY – AT 5:41 P.M. ET:  The refugee crisis that we're seeing played out in the Mideast and Europe is the worst since the end of World War II.  Now countries are realizing they can use it as a political weapon by threatening to flood other countries.  From London's Telegraph:

Libya has issued a veiled threat to send "hundreds of thousands" of extra migrants to Europe if Brussels does not give official recognition to its self-declared Islamist government.

Officials say they could hire boats to send large numbers of African migrants across the Mediterranean, massively adding to the numbers already reaching Europe's borders.

The warning was made by a spokesman for Libya's General National Congress in an interview with The Telegraph in the Libyan capital, Tripoli.

The Congress took control of Tripoli last year after fighting against forces loyal to the internationally- recognised House of Representatives government, and is not recognised by the European Union as Libya's legitimate government. A fortnight ago, both factions also rejected the terms of a United Nations-brokered peace deal.

Jamal Zubia, the Congress's foreign media spokesman, told The Telegraph that Libya was currently spending tens of millions of pounds a year stopping migrants from crossing the Mediterranean, through the use of detention centres and repatriation programs.

He said that if Europe continued to refuse to recognise the Congress's authority, the Libyan government could reverse the policy.

COMMENT:  I fear that Obama, in the months before he leaves office, will open the floodgates to thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of refugees and those posing as refugees, who have no intention of becoming Americans, but who seek the benefits.  As a committed leftist, that would be his dream. 

If Hillary Clinton is elected, she'd go right along with such a policy, because her base would demand it. 

November 3, 2015       Permalink

SAME OLD, SAME OLD – AT 9:05 A.M. ET:  Hillary Clinton has had a couple of good weeks, but I wonder how long that will last.  She's back in the field, announcing her support for "gun control" measures that are old, and which won't solve anything.   Clinton lives in the past, and is particularly comfortable in about, oh, 1968.  From The Hill:

Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton's campaign on Tuesday released a new ad focusing on gun control measures in an effort to reduce the “epidemic” of gun violence.

"This epidemic of gun violence knows no boundaries," Clinton says in a town hall event during the 30-second clip while calling to "close the loopholes and support universal background checks."
"How many people have to die before we actually act, before we come together as a nation?" Clinton asks in the video.

The footage comes from a speech Clinton delivered in New Hampshire early last month after nine people were killed by a gunman at a community college in Oregon.

Gun control has been a major topic among Democratic candidates, with Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) sparring over their approaches to the issue.

The ad comes on the heels of Clinton's meeting Monday with the mothers of several young African-Americans who have died in shootings, including Trayvon Martin and Michael Brown.

Their deaths were tragic, but neither was a sweet innocent, as the mainstream media originally portrayed them. 

The ad will air as part of a previously announced purchase in the early voting states of New Hampshire and Iowa, according to multiple reports. Clinton is campaigning in the Hawkeye State on Tuesday.

Gun control is a favorite issue of the comfortable, "we are the good people" Democratic left.  But there are reports that some Democrats are becoming uneasy with Clinton's emphasis on the issue.  It could negatively affect Democratic Senate candidates running in states where the Second Amendment actually matters.  From The Hill: 

There’s division within the Democratic Party over how aggressively to push gun control, an issue that is growing more urgent among the liberal base but threatens to hurt centrists running in battleground states.

While Democratic senators from liberal states such as Connecticut and Oregon are rolling out new gun control legislation in Washington, some strategists warn the issue could alienate pro-gun voters in swing states states such as Colorado, New Hampshire, Florida, Pennsylvania and Nevada.

But it could be difficult for Democratic Senate candidates to keep the gun issue at bay, given the rising fervor in the liberal base for action.

Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Martin O’Malley have tried to tap into the grassroots anger over gun violence, zeroing in on the issue during their first presidential debate.

“We have to look at the fact that we lose 90 people a day from gun violence,” Clinton said at the debate in Nevada, a battleground state that could decide the Senate majority next year. “This has gone on too long and it’s time the entire country stood up against the [National Rifle Association].”

COMMENT:  Polls show that the NRA actually has a positive image.  And people understand that Clinton and her followers always avoid the key issue in gun violence – local culture.  There are areas of the country with widespread gun ownership where there is virtually no gun crime.  Yet, there are cities, like Chicago, with restrictive gun laws, that are shooting galleries.  I wonder why.

November 3, 2015       Permalink

RUSSIAN AIRLINER LATEST – AT 8:44 A.M. ET:   We stress that this is informed speculation.  A sophisticated investigation is just starting.  From the Jerusalem Post: 

US officials ruled out Monday the possibility that a surface-to-air missile brought down a Russian commercial airline in Egypt's Sinai on Saturday, killing all 224 passengers on board, according to a report by NBC News.

Officials said that satellite imagery identified a heat flash at the point where the aircraft crashed, leading analysts to believe that an in-flight explosion, rather than external tampering, may have brought down the the plane.

"The speculation that this plane was brought down by a missile is off the table," an official told NBC. Yet the possibility that the explosion was fueled by an on-board terror attack has not been ruled out.

The Russian Airbus A-321, operated by the airline Kogalymavia with registration number KGL-9268, was flying from the Sinai Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh to St Petersburg in Russia Saturday when it went down in a desolate mountainous area of central Sinai soon after daybreak.

It took off at 5:51 a.m. Cairo time and disappeared from radar screens 23 minutes later, Egypt's Civil Aviation Ministry said in a statement.

The plane was at an altitude of 31,000 feet when it vanished from radar screens. It was completely destroyed and all those on board died.

COMMENT:  We're watching this carefully, and also watching for a cover-up.  The United States has not been invited to join the investigation yet, even though the plane's engines are American-made.  It is expected that we will soon be asked to join.

There have, of course, been bombs placed aboard airliners.  PanAm 103 was brought down by a bomb over Lockerbie, Scotland, in 1988, with a loss of 243 passengers and crew.  Eventually, Libyan operatives were charged with the crime.

By contrast, TWA flight 800 went down off Long Island in 1996, only 12 minutes after taking off from Kennedy International Airport, with a loss of 230.  The official NTSB report, which some have disputed, attributed the tragedy to an explosion in a fuel tank.

November 3, 2015       Permalink

BEN SURGES – AT 8:21 A.M. ET:  A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows Dr. Ben Carson surging into the lead nationally in the Republican race.  Is this because of his own popularity, Donald Trump's unpopularity, or both?  From NBC: 

Ben Carson has surged into the lead of the Republican presidential race, getting support from 29 percent of GOP primary voters, according to a brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

That's the highest percentage any GOP candidate has obtained so far in the survey.

Carson's 29 percent is followed by Donald Trump at 23 percent, Marco Rubio at 11 percent, Ted Cruz at 10 percent and Jeb Bush at 8 percent. These findings are similar to a New York Times/CBS poll released last week, which also showed Carson in first place in the national GOP contest.

If past polling has been about Trump leading the GOP field, "then this survey is about Dr. Ben Carson, who is currently the man to beat for the Republicans," says Democratic pollster Fred Yang, whose firm Hart Research Associates conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.

The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Oct. 25-29, so before and after last week's third Republican presidential debate hosted by CNBC.

COMMENT:  Also of substantial note is the gradual emergence of Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz as real contenders.  True, they're both well behind Carson and Trump, but they're starting to distance themselves from the pack.  The current "serious" contenders, in my view, are Carson, Trump, Rubio and Cruz.  Jeb Bush is fading, and Carly Fiorina, the best debater in the group, has fallen back. 

It's still early.  But there already are signs that Trump has peaked.  Next debate is next week, November 10th, from Milwaukee, hosted by Fox Business News.

November 3,  2015     Permalink